A year after the assassination of cofounder Charlie Kirk, Turning Point plans to pour tens of millions of dollars into the midterm elections to help Republican candidates in key congressional and gubernatorial races, according to sources familiar with the matter.
The conservative grassroots group is expected to prioritize three states in the midterms—New Hampshire, Arizona, and Nevada—but will also deploy full-time field staff in seven other states where Democrats could pick up seats.
The precise amounts could change, but sources tell WIRED that Turning Point’s super PAC is looking to spend $15–$20 million in ads across the three priority states. Turning Point’s field operation spending couldn’t be learned, as it is run by a 501(c)(4) nonprofit, but it is estimated to be tens of millions more.
The planned cash injection will pay for both a field operation as well as digital ads, and would only add to the advantage for Republicans in funding through a constellation of outside super PACs and party committees.
The most closely watched race for Republicans in New Hampshire is the Senate seat vacated by the retiring Democrat Jeanne Shaheen, where former Republican senator John Sununu is running against Democratic representative Chris Pappas to flip the seat.
The New Hampshire Senate race is a crucial battleground for both parties, as many of the possible paths to Democrats taking the Senate majority require the party to keep the seat, which the Cook Political Report rates as “Lean Democrat.”
Turning Point has also been particularly focused on the race for governor in Arizona, where Democratic incumbent Katie Hobbs is running against Representative Andy Biggs, who endorsed President Donald Trump’s claims of a stolen election in 2020.
These maneuvers come as Republican groups have started a massive cash injection to counter a wave of discontent from voters over the Iran war and high prices, and burgeoning Democratic momentum that has opened up the possibility of a Democrat-controlled Senate.
After facing criticism for not spending earlier, Trump’s political operation has stepped into gear recently with a $10 million ad spend in the Texas Senate race through Trump’s main super PAC, MAGA Inc. More recently, Trump’s team has used No Going Back PAC Inc, a new entity, to reserve at least $47 million in ads in six Senate races and one House race.
The extent of the coordination between Trump’s operation and MAGA Inc. with outside groups like Turning Point isn’t entirely clear, but there has been extensive data sharing to coordinate on which voters to reach, one of the sources said.
And with the midterms in November widely expected to be decided in part by turnout, Turning Point has communicated to Trump’s orbit that a major focus of its field operation is reminding Trump supporters to actually vote on Election Day.
Unlike other super PACs, Turning Point has been an organization focused on presidential elections, and its midterm strategy is really an effort to build up infrastructure for the Republican ticket in 2028, the sources said.
The focus on New Hampshire, Arizona, and Nevada comes as Turning Point contends with the fact that winning those states in 2028 would offset Vice President JD Vance—or anyone else—needing to win traditional so-called blue-wall states.
You know what they say: The day after midterms is the first day of the presidential election. Republicans are already campaigning.
A Rock and a Hard Place
With Trump’s approval rating now consistently at or under 40 percent, a historically dangerous level for a midterm election, Republicans have faced a dilemma over participating in the Republican “midterm convention” this week in Texas.
While party conventions are typically only held in presidential election years, Trump and other officials are set to headline the event in an effort to boost vulnerable Republicans like Texas Senate nominee Ken Paxton and mobilize the base.
