The Real Threat to the Midterms Is Regular Americans Thinking Violence Is the Answer

The attack on the Capitol on January 6, 2021, was not conducted mainly by extremists or fringe militia groups. It was, according to the data, the work of normal Americans.

That is the conclusion Robert A. Pape lays out in his new book, Our Own Worst Enemies: America in the Age of Violent Populism, citing data about those who were arrested and charged following the attack.

While Proud Boys and Oath Keepers gained most of the headlines, data collected by Pape as part of his work as founding director of the Chicago Project on Security and Threats (CPOST) found that the vast majority (90 percent) of those charged with crimes arising from the attack held no affiliation with militias or militant organizations.

Pape’s analysis found that 22 percent were business owners, and almost 30 percent held a college degree. Among the defendants were doctors, engineers, CEOs, and government employees. Nearly 40 percent held white-collar jobs, while just 8 percent of participants were unemployed.

The findings are key to understanding the warning that is central to Pape’s book: Americans do not understand that the threat of political violence is coming not from the fringes, but from the mainstream.

“As the 2026 midterms approach, US elections are entering a danger zone in which state power, protest, and political legitimacy increasingly collide,” Pape writes in the book. “For most Americans, political violence is still understood as episodic—shocking when it erupts but destined to fade. That assumption is reassuring. It is also increasingly dangerous.”

WIRED spoke to Pape about his book, his concerns about violence in the midterms, why it is so important to understand the attack on the Capitol, and what, if anything, gives him hope that democracy will win out.

This interview has been edited for length and clarity.

DAVID GILBERT: Your book is centered on the idea of violent populism. What is it, and why is it on the rise in 2026?

ROBERT A. PAPE: Violent populism is a dangerous political climate where substantial segments of the public increasingly accept physical force as a legitimate tool to gain, preserve, or defend political power. It is on the rise due to a profound cultural clash over the nature of American identity and citizenship, exacerbated by elite rhetoric that frames politics as an existential struggle between enemies. This structural dynamic transforms ordinary, mainstream citizens into active participants in political aggression.